COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN POST-SOVIET STATES
Published:
This page provides regular updates of COVID-19 model outcomes for the Post-Soviet states. The dynamic simulation uses the SPEIQRD (Susceptible-Protected-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered-Dead) model. For more details of result we refer the reader to the preprint https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20071704.
The basic reproduction number, R0, can be seen as the average number of people who are infected from an active case. Based on the model, the behavior of R0 is illustrated in the below figure.
According to the SPEIQRD model, R0 values are shown in the below table for May 1, 2020.
| Country | R0 |
|---|---|
| Armenia | 0.9253 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.0023 |
| Belarus | 4.9832 |
| Georgia | 0.2326 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.0215 |
| Kyrgyzstan | 0.2014 |
| Moldova | 0.0339 |
| Russia | 0.8660 |
| Uzbekistan | 0.0053 |
| Ukraine | 0.8476 |
Research Team
Researchers from the Nazarbayev Univesity and the University of Pittsburgh are working on the predictive model of COVID-19 outbreak for the Post-Soviet states. Research team members are Alpamys Issanov , Yerlan Amanbek, Anara Abbay, Mohamad Aljofan, Ardak Kashkynbayev, Abduzhappar Gaipov (Nazarbayev University) and Shalkar Adambekov (University of Pittsburgh).